Personally, I say Nuristan in Afghanistan and Dir District across the border in Pakistan, but what do I know. I've only been studying this for 6 years now. That's where he is in the winter-time. Right about this time, Bin Laden starts leaving his winter home in Dir and Nuristan and starts to take off inland towards higher ground.
He heads east towards Kohistan, or north up towards Chitral, and then maybe even way up along the Roof of the World up by where Pakistan, China and Afghanistan all come together, where hardly anyone ever even goes. Way up there, his party supposedly stays in caves. They may travel in convoys of SUV's, but usually Bin Laden just travels in donkey convoys that are very long and may contain large numbers of traveling men.
Bin Laden and company just kind of blend in. They move through the tribal lands, and no one really notices or cares all that much. Who knows if he ever gets recognized.
Most up there protect him anyway. In the past few years, a US patrol in Nuristan came close to bin Laden's winter headquarters, and the team that protects him (an inner circle called the Black Guard) was supposedly getting ready to kill themselves and Bin Laden if the US troops got too close and they were going to get captured.
As it was, the US troops either moved away or Bin Laden's band escaped, and there was no mass suicide. That's what no one ever understands about this Bin Laden thing. The guy is suicidal and so are all the maniacs around him, so he's never going to be taken alive anyway, although his head on a pole will look great to whoever nabs him.
Meanwhile, enjoy Osama Bin Laden On Top of the World, an older piece that did not get read too much. Lots of fantastic info and pictures, including repeated Bin Laden sightings in the area, and the dates when he was thought to be there. Be sure that the Pakistani ISI knows where the guy is most of the time though. Bet on it. Be nice if they would tell us. Some allies!
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